Although it is too early to tell if Chicago will have the same rare piece of good news on AIDS as San Francisco, the situation looks grim.
San Francisco media recently reported that the city is seeing a decline in HIV infections among the city's gay community, which suggests that the spread of the disease in its LGBT community has significantly slowed to rates recorded four years ago. The Chicago Department of Public Health ( CDPH ) said that it is far too early to tell if Chicago is seeing a similar trend.
Christopher Brown, assistant commissioner to the CDPH's division of STD/HIV/AIDS, said that health practitioners report HIV/AIDS cases to the department, and then the data is categorized by year of diagnosis. The 2004 data is still very preliminary, he said. Also, information is still coming in from 2004.
From what the department does have, Brown said, 'We are seeing decreases in overall numbers in 2003 and 2004, but basically it's too soon to tell. It's too early to tell if we've got substantial reductions.'
So far, among men who have sex with men, 2003 and 2004 data show a reduction in numbers. The proportions are just about the same as the general population, but since 2004 cases are still rolling in, Brown predicts that the infection rates 'could definitely rise and may not show a decrease at all.'
By the end of 2005 or early 2006, the department will have a more definite idea of what the actual numbers are, he added.
'The decreases, particularly for 2004, may just be a reporting lag,' Brown continued. 'It's really too early for us to tell. It's been relatively stable with infection over the last few years. If it looks like we clearly have reductions for 2003 and 2004, by the beginning of 2006 we'll have a sense of if we truly have a reduction or if it is just a reporting lag.'
According to Dr. Leigh Roberts of the Howard Brown Health Center, Chicago is not seeing the same trend as San Francisco. At least, that is what she and others have observed at Howard Brown.
'That's not what we've seen here,' Roberts said. 'Anecdotally, we've seen increased infection rates in youth ( ages 14 to 24 ) and men over 40,' she added. Chicago data from 2002 and 2003 show steady numbers, at best, with roughly 1,100 to 1,200 HIV cases a year, she added.
While Chicago works 'backwards,' counting up their numbers based on diagnoses, San Francisco makes an estimate, Roberts said. The difference in data collection and reporting could be one reason why one city is seeing a positive trend: 'I think it's hopeful, but I also think it's a little bit putting the cart before the horse.'