Shock waves from the New Hampshire presidential primary continue to roll over the political landscape. Al Gore has moved a long way toward nailing down the Democratic nomination. While John McCain's stunning margin of victory over frontrunner George W. Bush points toward a long struggle for the Republican nod. All of this came with unexpectedly high turnout Feb. 1.
Gore's 52 to 47 percent margin was not overwhelming but it was enough. Bradley had to win New Hampshire, a state in the northeastern bedrock of his support where he polled well. But he did not. The former Senator has the financial strength to remain a candidate, while Gore may well bump against federal spending limits. Still, in many crucial ways the race is effectively over. Gore has superior organizational support and his command of the "super delegates" of party officials gives him a virtually insurmountable lead.
Bradley actively sought gay and lesbian votes. His articulation of favorable positions forced Gore to compete with his own shifts to more pro-gay policies. That may continue as long as the nomination is viewed as competitive. But soon Gore will begin to look past the primaries to position him for the general election. He will be speaking less of gay issues as he moves towards the middle of the political road.
McCain trounced Bush by a margin of 49 to 31 percent. He won most sectors of the electorateregistered Republicans, Independents who could vote in that primary, and all age groups. The only group he did not carry was archconservatives.
Self-proclaimed candidates of the far right wallowed in the single digits. The Family Research Council's Gary Bauer drew a mere 1 percent [ and he later withdrew from the presidential campaign ] , while Sen. Orin Hatch couldn't even manage that. Alan Keyes, who came in a strong third in the Iowa Caucuses, drew about the same number of votes in New Hampshire, but with a larger turnout that meant 6 percent of the total. Steve Forbes, after his second place showing in Iowa and millions spent on advertising, talked of winning New Hampshire. All of that bought him a lucky 13 percent of the vote.
It is instructive that the Republican candidates with the most laisse faire attitudes toward gays polled 80 percent of that primary vote, more if one includes Forbes.
Bush's strength has been that the Republican Party wanted a winner and he seemed to be a winner. That perception led to early endorsements and a mountain of campaign contributions. But Forbes' strong second in Iowa and McCain's huge victory in New Hampshire have tarnished that aura. It has shown that he is vulnerable. As the Manchester, NH Union Leader editorialized the day after the election, "The emperor has no clothes."
The good news for the community is that gay bashing is no longer an acceptable tactic, the Christian Coalition is no longer a dominate force. The elections are being played out in the political center. Furthermore, gays and lesbians are working openly in all of the four major campaigns. While some campaigns are more welcoming than others, we do have a seat at the table in all of them. That has never happened before.