The number of same-sex couples in Illinois in 2006 was almost five times greater than the number counted in 1990 when the U.S. Census Bureau first collected data on same-sex partner households. That increase is similar to a national trend. But the number in Chicago has grown at only about half that pace.
These are just some of the conclusions found in 'Geographic Trends Among Same-Sex Couples in the U.S. Census and the American Community Survey,' a study released Nov. 2. The study was prepared by Gary Gates, a senior research fellow at the Williams Institute, a research center at UCLA for sexual orientation, law and policy studies. Gates examined data from the 1990 and 2000 decennial surveys of every household in the United States and data from the annual 'American Community Surveys' for the years 2002 through the latest, 2006.
His report shows that the most recent Census Bureau data, from 2006, estimates there are 779,867 same-sex couples in the United States—up from 145,130 who self-identified in the 1990 decennial census.
In Illinois, the number of same-sex couples jumped from 6,220 in 1990 to 22,887 in 2000. The number increased again and peaked in 2004 at 30,088. It has remained steady since then, numbering 30,432 in 2006. In Chicago, which accounted for more than half the state's total in 1990, same-sex couples numbered 3,842 during that first tally. The number jumped to 9,412 in 2000 and has been roller-coastering in the years since. The peak count thus far came in 2005 with 10,001 same-sex couples. In 2006, the number had dropped to 8,983.
Examining how that data stacks up to the overall number of households, the number of same-sex couple households per thousand in Illinois has grown from 1.48 in 1990 to 6.43 in 2006, putting the state squarely in the middle of all 50 states in terms of the concentration of gay couples. In Chicago, there were 3.76 same-sex couple households per every 1,000 in 1990, but 9.5 per thousand in the last three years. That ranks Chicago 18th among the nation's 50 most populous cities in terms of same-sex couple concentration.
Gates says his analysis 'allows us to measure the closet'—that is, the number of people who were unwilling to self-identify as gay—between 1990 and 2006.
'And it gives us a clue about what states might be turning a little more purple,' he said, referring to the identification of state voting records as trending toward Democratic ( blue ) or Republican ( red ) .
Utah, he said, was the most dramatic in both respects. In regard to the concentration of same-sex couples, Utah ranked number 38 in 1990. But in 2006, it ranked number 14.
'It's now one of the gayest states in the country,' said Gates. That finding stands in stark contrast, of course, to what most people think of Utah —as a Mormon-dominated population that is generally hostile to gays.
Other interesting data which Gates teased out in his analysis include:
• Among states, Vermont has the highest concentration of same-sex couple households ( 9.71 per 1,000 households ) ; followed by New Mexico ( 9.03 ) , Massachusetts ( 8.99 ) , Washington ( 8.94 ) , and Oregon ( 8.83 ) ;
• Among cities, San Francisco continues to reign as the gayest city in the United States, based on its concentration of same-sex households ( 28.72 per 1,000 ) . Seattle comes second ( 21.27 ) , followed by Minneapolis ( 18.68 ) , Portland, Ore., ( 16.94 ) and Sacramento ( 16.36 ) .
• Of the 779,867 same-sex couples in 2006, the data estimates that 53.5 percent of male couples and 46.5 percent are female couples;
• Comparing population trends of the public at large and those of same-sex couple households, Gates said he found evidence suggesting more same-sex couples are moving from the city to the suburbs.
The greatest surge in the number of reported same-sex couple households occurred between the 1990 census, when the census form first provided an option for same-sex couples to identify themselves, and 2000. In 2000, the 594,391 same-sex couples were more than three times the 145,130 identified in 1990. The increase between 2000 and 2006 was 185,476 couples, or a 31 percent increase.
The concentration of same-sex couples to all households grew from 1.56 per 1,000 in 1990 to 5.61 per 1,000 in 2000, and 6.79 per 1,000 for 2004-2006.
While the decennial survey numbers are based on a questionnaire that the Census Bureau tries to have every household in the country fill out, the American Community Survey is an annual questionnaire sent out to only about three million households nationwide—about 250,000 each month. At the end of the year, the data is put all together and a calculation provides an estimate of the national total for that year. Gates said he used an average from the years 2004-2006 because the community survey samples are 'still relatively small compared to the Census,' and, thus, a single-year ranking of a city or state can vary substantially.
Gates said the questions asked on each of the surveys were 'exactly the same,' but noted that the Census Bureau has made improvements in how it counts same-sex couples. He also said that, while the annual community survey is an estimate –compared to the actual head count of the decennial census— the jump in numbers between 2000 and 2006 is still statistically significant.
And politically significant, too.
Gates said his analysis indicates that the largest increases in the number of same-sex couple households occurred in the most politically conservative areas. For instance, states where the public voted on constitutional amendments to ban same-sex marriage saw, on average, a 41 percent increase in the number of same-sex couple households between 2000 and 2006. States which did not consider constitutional bans saw only a 27 percent increase.
States which have some form of legal recognition of same-sex relationships saw an increase of 23 percent in the number of same-sex households, compared to states which provided no recognition, which rose by 32 percent.
'If this many people are coming out and being more visible,' said Gates, 'over the next couple of years, gay issues aren't going to have the sort of political resonance they've had in the past.'