The latest polls show Democrats taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives and picking up seats though probably not control of the U.S. Senate.
That prospect has LGBT advocates salivating over enhanced prospects for advancing the gay agenda. But one should not get hopes up too high.
It seems almost certain that one piece of legislation will move, the Employment Non-Discrimination Act ( ENDA ) , expanded to be trans-inclusive. It is the centerpiece of the Human Rights Campaign's ( HRC ) legislative agenda and, as the big dog of gay organizations, they often call the shots.
Big business and national polling numbers are behind ENDA, and the Senate already has passed it in previous sessions. HRC long has claimed that it has the votes to pass it in the House, but the Republican leadership has not allowed such a vote. The Democrats will.
But the Democratic leaders also have won their majority by electing moderates and even conservatives in competitive districts and they are going to be protective of the freshman. That means focusing in the first six months on issues with the broadest appeal.
It's most likely that the House will not consider ENDA until after it returns from summer recess in 2007, or perhaps in the early portion of 2008. That may change if HRC can push the legislation through the Senate on a earlier vote and the House only has to go along. But the Senate also will have new leadership, regardless of which party is in control, and the margin of control will be razor-thin, so an early vote seems unlikely.
The longer congressional Democrats tarry in paying off their loyal gay voters by passing ENDA, the more unlikely it becomes that they will not address a second piece of the legislative gay agenda.
The next most likely candidate is a hate-crimes bill. It has a history of support that is similar to ENDA, with consideration having been blocked by the House Republican leadership. It is possible that it might be passed, either as a stand alone bill, or more likely as an amendment to another piece of legislation, possibly an appropriations bill.
Other pieces of pro-gay legislation in the hopper are Barney Frank's bill to create domestic-partnership-type benefits for the partners of federal employees, and a bill to repeal the anti-gay military policy known as 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell.'
There have been no hearings on the Frank legislation, and a Senate version of the bill was introduced just a few weeks ago. Look for hearings in the House to begin to prepare the ground for this legislation, but it is highly unlikely that there will be a vote on the floor of either chamber during the next session of Congress.
Repeal of 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' is even more problematic. While the measure has gained about 120 co-sponsors in the House, only a handful are Republicans and some of them may not survive the November elections. No version has been introduced in the Senate.
Most Democrats have a fear of being seen as soft on defense, particularly with a presidential campaign underway, and social conservatives are sure to play on that theme if repeal is brought up. In addition, many senior Democrats on the military committees are on the conservative side, so it is not a particularly welcoming environment. The most one can hope for in the next Congress is a hearing that begins to look at the issues, and not a vote.
It is still unclear whether the lame duck session of the current Congress will pass reauthorization of the Ryan White CARE Act, which funds most domestic HIV program activities. If it does not, the regions that stand to lose money under the changes will be in a stronger position as they are heavily democratic and their clout will increase.
But the main roadblock with AIDS programs is that of money, more precisely, the need to add significantly more funding. While many Democrats talk about addressing that priority, with so many constituencies with their hands out, it is unclear how willing they will be to take the necessary step of increasing taxes enough to meet all of those demands for increased funding.
The political reality is that they will be focused on the presidential election campaign and the fear that Republicans will use tax increases against them.
One of the most important things for the LGBT community will be what does NOT happen in the halls of Congress.
At the top of the list is a vote to amend the U.S. Constitution to ban gay marriage. Votes in the last two sessions of Congress showed that it wasn't going anywhere in either chamber, but Republican leaders allowed repeated hearings and votes as a sop to the social conservative advocates of the amendment. Democrats in the House won't give them that opportunity.
With Democrats in control of the House, anti-gay Rep. Mark Souder, R-Ind., has a much smaller perch and staff to harass gay and AIDS organizations by requesting audits of their federal grants, and justifications of research into issues of sexuality conducted by NIH and the CDC.
The pendulum will swing the other way, with Henry Waxman, D-Calif., giving conservatives a taste of their own medicine. He already has stimulated investigation into the efficacy of abstinence programs and likely will raise the level of those types of investigations.
