This is the column I most hate writing each year because I always humiliate myself. My problem is that as much as I know in my head that merit is one of the last things considered by Academy voters in bestowing their awards, my heart always convinces my head that in some cases the person who deserves the award will actually win it.
Compounding the problem this year is a record number of nominations for out gays and queer-themed films that make me want to root for the homo team. Even there I'd have to go with Solomon and split the Best Original Screenplay Oscar between Todd Haynes and Pedro Almodovar.
With Miramax marketing muscle behind it, Chicago has been an unstoppable juggernaut the past two months, not only racking up awards but hanging in the top five at the box office while so-called blockbusters like Daredevil have come and gone.
Thirty years ago a musical (Cabaret) and a gangster movie (The Godfather) had 10 nominations each. The Godfather won Best Picture and two others, while Cabaret won eight, including Best Director. It looked for a time like this year's most-nominated films would do a reverse split, with Chicago taking Best Picture and Martin Scorsese winning for Gangs of New York (really for his past work).
Since the Directors Guild honored (gay) Rob Marshall for Chicago over Scorsese, the odds have increased exponentially that Oscar will follow suit. Chicago also took Best Picture from the Producers Guild and has the most nominations (13), two more signs that it has a lock on the top prize.
One award Chicago will lose, if you believe the guilds, is for the Adapted Screenplay by (gay) Bill Condon. The Writers Guild honored (straight) David Hare for adapting (gay) Michael Cunningham's lesbian-themed novel The Hours.
The Academy can't follow the Writers Guild in the Original Screenplay category because Bowling for Columbine wasn't nominated. This could be the consolation prize for Todd Haynes' Far from Heaven or for Gangs of New York, but it's less likely to go to the two Spanish-language nominees or the insanely popular (but not so well written) My Big Fat Greek Wedding. My heart says Haynes so I'd better predict Gangs.
In the acting categories, where Jack Nicholson once seemed a shoo-in we'll go with the Screen Actors Guild and predict Daniel Day-Lewis (although Jack could still surprise us and I wouldn't rule out Michael Caine as a dark horse), Renee Zellweger, Christopher Walken (but Chris Cooper can't be far behind and Paul Newman has longevity going for him) and Catherine Zeta-Jones.
Some voters may be confused if not angry by the gerrymandering in the acting categories where studios are allowed to decide who qualifies as lead or supporting, regardless of their billing or amount of screen time. The Academy may finally have to come up with rules to deal with this as things became absurd this year with efforts to keep actresses from competing with themselves (Meryl Streep, Julianne Moore) or their co-stars (Renee Zellweger, Catherine Zeta-Jones) in the same category.
Lesser-known guilds have given their awards to Road to Perdition (the late Conrad L. Hall) for Cinematography, Chicago and Gangs of New York for Editing (Chicago will take the lone Oscar), Catch Me if You Can and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers for Art Direction (again there's only one Oscar and Catch Me wasn't nominated; I'm betting the guild will be overruled on this one in favor of Chicago or, more likely, Gangs of New York).
The Costume Designers Guild hadn't announced their winners at this writing so I'll put this among Chicago's sweep.
Although Spirited Away won the Annie Award from animators and the most respect from critics, I think xenophobia will prevail for Animated Feature and the prize will go to Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron.
I haven't seen all the Foreign Language nominees but I think we can rule out the gay Dutch comedy Zus & Zo and Mexico's trashy El Crimen del Padre Amaro. The other three all have good buzz, and Germany's position in the UN could help or hurt Nowhere in Africa, depending on who votes. I'll guess it will help put that one over the top.
Other controversies will ensure a shutout of Roman Polanski's The Pianist and a loss for Eminem in the Best Song category, giving U2 a mate for their Golden Globe for the Gangs of New York song.
I'm worried about Philip Glass (The Hours) stealing the Best Original Score Oscar from deserving Elmer Bernstein (Far from Heaven), who at 80 is still working at his peak; but I'll go with my heart on this one and trust the Academy to honor Bernstein, one of their own, with his second win on 14 nominations.
In a weak Makeup lineup The Hours can't win by a nose because it wasn't nominated, so it should go to Frida, even without a mustache.
Sound: Chicago. Sound Editing: Minority Report. Visual Effects: Spider-Man.
Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine, which has boldly gone where no documentary has gone before (e.g., Cannes Festival competition, Writers Guild screenplay award), will take one more step and overcome the Academy's usual reluctance to honor a commercially successful Documentary Feature.
For Documentary Short Subject I prefer the unique The Collector of Bedford Street but Mighty Times: The Legacy of Rosa Parks lists names of thousands of financial supporters at the end and I know some of them are Academy members. Call it a conflict of interest if you will, but let Ms. Parks sit up front.
Sony has the clout to get a Best Animated Short trophy for The ChubbChubbs! Inja (Dog) has a boy, a dog and anti-apartheid sentiment going for it to win for Best Live Action Short Film.
I'm confident I can't lose this year, but just in case ... please shred this page Sunday night before turning on your TV to watch the 75th Annual Academy Awards.
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