Windy City Media Group Frontpage News


home search facebook twitter join
Gay News Sponsor Windy City Times 2023-02-22



FEATURE: Gay Dems could boost Obama, but some GOPs balk at Palin
News Update Sunday, Nov. 2, 2008
by Lisa Keen, Keen News Service

This article shared 3627 times since Wed Oct 29, 2008
facebook twitter google +1 reddit email

If gay voters repeat their voting patterns from the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, the gay vote will—based on polls from the end of October—be large enough to give Democrat Barack Obama the margin of victory in three critical swing states. And, it won't be large enough in any state to give Republican John McCain the votes he needs to win.

In 2000, gay, lesbian and bisexual voters who responded to exit polls gave 70 percent of their vote to Democrat Al Gore, 25 percent to Republican George Bush and 5 percent to other candidates. Four years later, GLB voters who responded to exit polls gave 77 percent of their vote to Democrat John Kerry and 23 percent to Republican George Bush.

If those voting patterns hold in 2008, the estimated number of GLB voters for the Democrat will likely be larger than the current leads Obama holds in Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. For instance, in Florida, applying census data and other population studies by the GLB voters likely compose about 4.94 percent of the 7.5 million voters who turned out in 2004. That puts the GLB vote in Florida—in 2004—at about 373,000. An average of polls conducted in recent days indicate Obama has a lead of about 1.9 percent ( though, importantly, there is a margin of error of 3 to 4 points in these polls ) . Applying these percentages to the 2004 turnout, and Obama has a lead of roughly 143,000 votes. Seventy percent of the GLB vote equals about 261,000.

Similar calculations in North Carolina suggest Obama has roughly a 52,000-vote lead and that 70 percent of GLB votes equals about 85,000. In Missouri, Obama has about a 27,000-vote lead and 70 percent of the GLB vote equals about 73,000.

There are a lot of caveats. The voter turnout in Florida—as well as many, if not most states—is likely to be dramatically larger this year, due to an unprecedented interest in this year's historic presidential contest and a vigorous effort to register new voters. While the partisan affiliation in 2004 was roughly one-third Democrat, one-third Republican and one-third independent, the affiliations this year are much more heavily Democratic ( 37 percent to Republican 28 percent ) , according to Harvard professor Sunshine Hillygus.

There were also questions raised as to whether LGBT Democrats who supported Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama during the heavily contested Democratic primary would unanimously shift to Obama during the general election. But there has been little evidence to the contrary. A Web-based survey in early August, two months after Obama secured the nomination, showed 68 percent of GLB voters were backing Obama—a percentage consistent with previous presidential votes.

Mark Walsh, who headed up Clinton's LGBT voter drive, is now actively organizing for Obama, doing events and organizing for him in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Massachusetts, and doing get-out-the-vote work for him in Florida during the final days.

'I'm sure there are folks who are not' onboard the Obama campaign, said Walsh, 'but there's not one person on the Clinton LGBT steering committee who has not come around and really become active in the [ Obama ] campaign.'

Information about the LGBT Republicans has been more muddled. The Web-based survey of 178 self-identified LGBT voters in early August suggested that the percentage planning to vote for McCain was only 10 percent—down significantly from 23 and 25 percent of presidential election voting. That survey clashed against national Log Cabin President Patrick Sammon's strong statements of support for McCain and the national Log Cabin board's 12-2 vote to endorse the McCai-Palin ticket.

Interviews with Log Cabin chapter representatives in nine states this week indicate that gay Republicans are solidly behind McCain—with a few exceptions.

Patrick Howell, president of the Log Cabin chapter in Orlando, Florida, said he thinks the majority of Orlando's members will vote for McCain and that more will vote for McCain than did for Bush in 2004.

'In 2004,' said Howell, 'George Bush was supporting the Federal Marriage Amendment and Log Cabin felt like he was using gay people as a wedge issue.' The national Log Cabin board declined to endorse Bush in 2004, he noted.

'We do have disagreements now and then with [ Senator McCain ] ,' said Cheak Yee of the San Diego club, 'but he has always been a big-tent inclusive Republican.'

Howell, Yee and other Log Cabin chapter representatives around the country said they think most gay Republicans see McCain and Obama as only moderately different on gay-related issues. They prefer McCain for reasons related to national security and taxes.

But several said they believe a significant number of their members might not vote for McCain this year and that many of those might vote for Obama. The primary reason? It involves vice-presidential running mate Gov. Sarah Palin.

Truman Smith, president of the South Carolina chapter of Log Cabin, said about 85 percent of his members favored endorsing McCain back in August, but only 'a little more than 50 percent' do now.

'Support here has dropped since Palin,' he said. That's because Palin supports amending the federal constitution to ban gay marriage and because she's perceived as being unqualified for the vice presidency. Some who have concerns about Palin will vote for Obama, said Smith, and some will simply not vote.

Dennis Sanders, past president of the Minnesota Log Cabin chapter, said he, too, thinks there may be some defection.

'There is some discouragement with the [ Republican ] campaign,' said Sanders. 'Some questions regarding Sarah Palin and some of her views,' he said.

He and a few others interviewed said they would vote for Obama, 'grudgingly.'

'I'd rather be voting for McCain,' said Sanders, 'but there are a few factors—including Palin—that have made me less inclined to vote for McCain. I want to vote for him. I personally like him. But, at this point, I think the thing that has been the block for me has been his running mate—not that she's bad person, just that she's not ready to lead at this point and some of her views on social issues are not where I'd support.'

As of this week, polls showed six states where the margins between the two candidates was less than 5 percentage points, with a margin of error in those polls of between three and four points. Those six are: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Nevada and Montana. Based on an analysis of several recent polls in each of these states, Real Clear Politics, a Web-based political analysis site, characterizes these as 'toss-ups.' But the size and likely breakdown of the LGBT vote in the latter three states—Indiana, Nevada and Montana—is not large enough to account for the current gaps between the two candidates.

'The LGBT vote is one of the most reliably partisan votes of any [ constituency ] in the country,' said Gary Gates, a senior research fellow at the Williams Institute and a leading expert on LGBT demographics. 'It's generally 3 to 1.' Gates said he would expect a similar breakdown with the Obama-McCain match-up, saying 'If [ John ] Kerry couldn't steal away votes [ from President Bush ] , I'm not sure why Obama would get dramatically bigger proportions [ against McCain ] .'

©2008 Keen News Service

This article shared 3627 times since Wed Oct 29, 2008
facebook twitter google +1 reddit email


Gay News

Mayoral candidate Brandon Johnson visits Sidetrack 2023-03-27
- Mayoral candidate Brandon Johnson headlined a fundraiser for his campaign at Sidetrack Video Bar on March 25. The standing room only event drew a wide array of LGBTQ activists and community leaders, as well as supporters ...

Gay News

ELECTIONS 2023: Rep. Lamont Robinson discusses LGBTQ+ issues and his plans for the 4th Ward 2023-03-27
- The following is part of Windy City Times' series of interviews with LGBTQ+ candidates in the 2023 Chicago municipal elections. Among the 14 aldermanic races to be decided in the runoff election on April 4, Illinois ...

Gay News

Biden appoints Laura Ricketts to Council on Sports, Fitness & Nutrition 2023-03-27
- President Joe Biden has appointed Laura Ricketts—the lesbian co-owner of the Chicago Cubs, board chair of Chicago Cubs Charities and board chair of LPAC, which works to elect lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer women and ...

Gay News

Michaela Jae Rodriguez honored at HRC dinner 2023-03-26
- On March 25, the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) hosted its Los Angeles dinner at the JW Marriott Los Angeles L.A. LIVE—and honored Golden Globe-winning and Emmy-nominated trans actress Michaela Jae Rodriguez, per a press release. Human ...

Gay News

ALA: 2022 saw record demand of censorship of library books 2023-03-25
- On March 22, the American Library Association (ALA) released new data documenting 1,269 demands to censor library books and resources in 2022—the highest number of attempted book bans since the ALA began compiling data about censorship ...

Gay News

NATIONAL 'Don't Say Gay,' anti-trans bills, gay Irish leader visits, gay Calif. mayor 2023-03-25
- In Indiana, approximately 100 students from the Center For Inquiry School 27 held a walk-out to protest the state's "Don't Say Gay" bill, which would restrict how teachers are able to discuss sexual orientation or gender ...

Gay News

Baldwin leads 22 colleagues in calling on FDA to end discriminatory blood donation policy 2023-03-24
--From a press release - WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) has headed up a group of 22 colleagues in sending a letter to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Dr. Robert Califf expressing support for the agency's ...

Gay News

Mayoral candidate forum centers BIPOC LGBTQ+ issues, Vallas declines to participate 2023-03-23
- Chicago mayoral candidate Brandon Johnson participated in a March 22 virtual LGBTQ+-focused forum co-hosted by Affinity Community Services (Affinity), Association of Latinos/as/xs Motivating Action (ALMA) Chicago ...

Gay News

Utah bans conversion therapy 2023-03-23
- On March 22, Republican Utah Gov. Spencer Cox signed a bill that bans licensed professionals from practicing conversion therapy—the discredited practice that attempts to turn LGBTQ+ people heterosexual—on minors, Q ...

Gay News

ELECTIONS 2023 Mayoral candidate Brandon Johnson discusses religion, LGBTQ+ issues, holistic approach 2023-03-22
- Chicago mayoral candidates Brandon Johnson and Paul Vallas seem to have little in common. Johnson, a Cook County commissioner, has embraced a more progressive platform that employs everything from a more holistic approach to crime to ...

Gay News

More than thirty-five LGBTQ+ leaders endorse Brandon Johnson for mayor of Chicago 2023-03-22
--From a press release - CHICAGO, IL — More than thirty-five LGBTQ+ community leaders are united in their support for Brandon Johnson for Mayor in Chicago's runoff election, representing the city's business, philanthropic, academic, civic ...

Gay News

N.Y. attorney general hosts Drag Story Hour 2023-03-21
- On March 19, New York Attorney General Letitia James—along with a coalition of advocacy organizations and elected leaders—hosted a first-of-its-kind Drag Story Hour Read-A-Thon for families in New York City, per a press release from her ...

Gay News

Kentucky lawmakers pass anti-trans youth bill; governor plans to veto measure 2023-03-20
- In Kentucky, Republican lawmakers passed a bill that bans minors from receiving gender-affirming care, lets educators refuse to refer to trans students by their preferred pronouns and would not allow schools to discuss sexual orientation or ...

Gay News

WORLD German bishops, trans woman's death, Hungary, human-rights event 2023-03-18
- Germany's Catholic bishops voted (38 to nine, with 11 abstentions) to adopt formal ceremonies for the blessing of same-sex relationships, defying the Vatican and testing church unity on what has become one of the most contentious ...

Gay News

NATIONAL Ritchie Torres, N.J. towns, Karine Jean-Pierre, Tennessee items 2023-03-18
- New York Congressman Ritchie Torres has talked about his own struggle with depression and the importance of mental health in the wake of U.S. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.)'s recent hospitalization for clinical depression, The Washington Blade ...


Copyright © 2023 Windy City Media Group. All rights reserved.
Reprint by permission only. PDFs for back issues are downloadable from
our online archives. Single copies of back issues in print form are
available for $4 per issue, older than one month for $6 if available,
by check to the mailing address listed below.

Return postage must accompany all manuscripts, drawings, and
photographs submitted if they are to be returned, and no
responsibility may be assumed for unsolicited materials.
All rights to letters, art and photos sent to Nightspots
(Chicago GLBT Nightlife News) and Windy City Times (a Chicago
Gay and Lesbian News and Feature Publication) will be treated
as unconditionally assigned for publication purposes and as such,
subject to editing and comment. The opinions expressed by the
columnists, cartoonists, letter writers, and commentators are
their own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Nightspots
(Chicago GLBT Nightlife News) and Windy City Times (a Chicago Gay,
Lesbian, Bisexual and Transegender News and Feature Publication).

The appearance of a name, image or photo of a person or group in
Nightspots (Chicago GLBT Nightlife News) and Windy City Times
(a Chicago Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual and Transgender News and Feature
Publication) does not indicate the sexual orientation of such
individuals or groups. While we encourage readers to support the
advertisers who make this newspaper possible, Nightspots (Chicago
GLBT Nightlife News) and Windy City Times (a Chicago Gay, Lesbian
News and Feature Publication) cannot accept responsibility for
any advertising claims or promotions.






About WCMG      Contact Us      Online Front  Page      Windy City  Times      Nightspots
Identity      BLACKlines      En La Vida      Archives      Advanced Search     
Windy City Queercast      Queercast Archives     
Press  Releases      Join WCMG  Email List      Email Blast      Blogs     
Upcoming Events      Todays Events      Ongoing Events      Bar Guide      Community Groups      In Memoriam     
Privacy Policy     

Windy City Media Group publishes Windy City Times,
The Bi-Weekly Voice of the Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual and Trans Community.
5315 N. Clark St. #192, Chicago, IL 60640-2113 • PH (773) 871-7610 • FAX (773) 871-7609.