Louisiana voters went to the polls on Sept. 18 and by 78 to 22 percent opted to amend their state constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage.
Gay and lesbian leaders acknowledged that similar measures on the November ballot likely will pass in a up to a 11 other states, but a handful of states look less grim than others. They discussed those plans with reporters in a Sept. 19 teleconference arranged by the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force (NGLTF).
'All across the country our community is very much the underdog,' said Matt Foreman, executive director of NGLTF. 'In every one of those instances we are the underdog in terms of people and resources. We believe strongly that if we have the time and the resources to talk to people about this issue that we could win these.'
Louisianan Tim Hornback said, 'We're in the deep South, the Bible Belt. Once you step out of New Orleans, things become rapidly different.' He is executive director of the Forum for Equality PAC and Foundation.
He acknowledged, 'We took it on the chin and we lost, but we also won. We have a stronger infrastructure now. We now have groups throughout the state' where none existed before.
The pro-gay forces in Louisiana ran their campaign on less than $50,000, which Foreman called, 'Not even a drop in the bucket.' Most of that went into legal maneuvers to keep the measure off the ballot.
Louisiana law says that a constitutional amendment can only address a single issue and opponents have argued that the measure that passed addressed two issues and therefore should be declared void. That lawsuit will be filed shortly.
Foreman said the amendments are being pushed as a way to turn out the vote to support their candidates. 'By that measure they failed' in Louisiana, he argued. 'This hot button issue did not turn out the electorate in the way they thought.' Only 28% of registered voters turned out compared with 49.5% last year when more issues and contested races were on the ballot.
Dave Fleischer, the Task Force's director of organizing and training, said Louisiana and the earlier losing battle in Missouri 'tell us where we start on the issue of same-sex marriage with the American public. But they don't tell us where we are going to finish' if the GLBT community runs strong campaigns to change those attitudes.
'It is clear that a majority of states are going to vote on this issue by 2007. This is really the first national referendum our country has ever had on any issue,' Fleischer said. 'Turning back even one of these antigay ballot measures illustrates our potential to change hearts and minds and votes.'
He cautioned against relying exclusively on the courts on this issue. Historically the courts do not like to get too far ahead of public opinion as reflected at the ballot box.
Oregon is shaping up as the strongest hope to defeat an antigay amendment. Aisling Coghlan, manager of the 'No on 36 Campaign,' said Oregon is different because 'we have fought four antigay ballot measures' dating from 1988. The community lost that first fight but came back to win the subsequent battles.
The legacy of 16,000 donors and more than 5,000 volunteers from the earlier struggles is why she is optimistic. The campaign has raised $1.3 million and will begin broadcasting commercials. But the key to is all is one-on-one conversations with voters.
Kentucky falls between the two extremes in terms of its resources and organization. It is facing the first statewide campaign on a gay issue. Sarah Reece, 'No on the Amendment' campaign manager, said the language 'forever bans access to legal recognition to all unmarried partners, both straight and gay.'
'When folks find out how far reaching part two of this amendment is, they are planning to overwhelmingly stand with us and vote no in November.' The trick is to reach enough voters to explain this. The emphasis is on walking door to door in eight communities.
The Oregon campaign is taking at least a half step away from other efforts (that avoided the words gay and marriage) and toward greater honesty, and an even larger step with greater resources. 'Not allowing people to marry causes real harm to real families,' Fleischer explained.
He said that Michigan offers potentially fertile political ground to defeat the amendment but the sheer size of the state means that it would require three times the financial and volunteer resources as Oregon.
Utah offers another surprising ray of hope. The three candidates for state attorney general have come out against the amendment because of flaws in the language. And the Mormon Church, a dominant force in the state, has so far kept quiet on the issue.
Foreman urged the community to 'define our own victories and not have victory defined solely at the ballot box.' That means using the state campaigns to better organize the community, build alliances, and educate the broader public. 'That is victory, and we should not minimize those victories.'
